PERAMALAN PRODUKSI CABAI RAWIT PROVINSI JAWA BARAT MENGGUNAKAN METODE HOLT-WINTERS

Abstract

The spiciness of cayenne pepper, not only in the mouth, but also can affect the
national economy. Cayenne pepper (Capsicum frutescens) is one of the horticultural
plants of a type of vegetable that has small fruit with a spicy taste. The skyrocketing
price of cayenne pepper can be a driver of national inflation. The first step to
suppress the increase in the price of cayenne pepper is to have the required number
of cayenne pepper production, which can be modeled mathematically through a
forecasting method which is one of the tools in making decisions based on past data
sets. The appropriate method to be used in this research is the holt-winters method
because the fluctuating data contains seasonal patterns. The results of the study
showed that the use of the Holt-Winters method with multiplicative seasonal type
obtained good forecasting results with a MAPE of 13.68 percent to predict the
production of cayenne pepper in West Java Province.