HUBUNGAN ANTARA PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI DAN INFLASI TERHADAP TINGKAT PENGANGGURAN TERBUKA SERTA IMPILIKASINYA TERHADAP KEMISKINAN DI INDONESIA

Abstract

This study aims to determine the relationship between economic growth and
inflation on the open unemployment rate and its implications for poverty in
Indonesia based on the Phillips Curve approach and Okun's Law, whether the
Phillips Curve Theory and Okun's Law apply in Indonesia. The Phillips curve
states that there is a relationship or trade off between the inflation rate and the
unemployment rate. Okun's law states that there is a linear negative
relationship between unemployment and economic growth: a 1% increase in the unemployment rate will cause a decrease in economic growth by 2% or more,
whereas a 1% increase in output will cause a decrease in the unemployment
rate of 1% or less. Based on the results of Granger causality for the case of the
Indonesian economy during the period 2001-2020, it shows that there is no
trade off relationship between inflation and open unemployment as depicted in
the Philips Curve. Furthermore, based on the difference version method of
Okun's law to obtain Okun's coefficient and Ordinary Least Square (OLS)
analysis, it is known that there is no negative relationship between
unemployment and the rate of economic growth in Indonesia during the period
2001-2020 and vice versa. And based on time series regression analysis with
the lag distribution method, using the Koyck model, it is obtained that economic
growth, inflation and open unemployment affect poverty in Indonesia